A friend of mine is shorting soybean futures and this is a rather nerve-racking piece (大豆临时收储政策煮成“夹生饭”). Seeking information from policy wonks:
- Q1. “在国际大豆吨价持续低于3000元的情况下，官方按照吨价3700元收购200多万吨大豆所造成的结果是，其余数百万吨的大豆砸在豆农手里，销售无门.”Who gets to sell and how is it decided?
- Q2. “这一系列的调控措施将东北地区豆价稳定在了吨价3500元以上，而此时国际市场大豆价格仍徘徊在3000元左右，与国内形成500元—700元的价差.”Any risk of government imposing trade barriers, eg. tariff hike, quota?
- Q3. What will the government do with the pile-up? Will they buy high and sell low (as a subsidy to the oil manufacturers)?
- Q4. “自从7月份以来，国际粮油价格高台跳水，大幅滑落。国际大豆吨价从高点时的近万元跌到目前的3000元左右。作为国内最主要的大豆产地，黑龙江地区国内豆价也一度跌至3200元左右，逼近豆农的成本价。”[..] ““我们算了一笔账，以目前的市场价儿，要像往年一样正常开工收购生产，企业一天得赔三四百万元。”黑龙江省最大的民营大豆油脂加工企业阳霖油脂集团营销总经理陈维庆说.”What the heck is happening here?
- Q5. “在陈维庆和田仁礼看来，大豆收储计划无疑是市场的搅局者。“与进口大豆相比每吨有高达600元的差价，注定加工就是个‘死’，生产越多亏得越大。”[..] “黑龙江海伦市豆农路春江说。“现在我卖3100一吨企业都不要，更别说政府3700的保护价了。”Am I missing something here? Any legal risk doing transaction below policy price?
- Q6. Is the provincial government running a surplus or deficit?
Why on earth are they doing this instead of simply ladling out some cash to the farmers?
My friend is lashing out at me as a commie. Can’t be more painful..
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